Some say I’ve gone “overboard”..maybe it’s ’cause I keep taking the OVER?!
Dave Carney 12/10/2020
Overall record: 107-79 (no change)
How did I get here?: Still holding on to my record from yesterday due to making yesterday’s play, tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the Patriots and Rams in Los Angeles. The good news for us, the line has moved another whole point since we took the game yesterday, now with the Rams giving up just four and a half points (-4.5).
Why is that a good sign? Because that means if we would have taken the game TODAY as opposed to yesterday, the Patriots would have to either WIN outright or LOSE by less than FIVE total points in order to cover the spread. When we took the game at Patriots (+5.5), we gave ourselves an extra point cushion, meaning New England can WIN, or LOSE by as much as 5 and we’re still good. This also indicates that the money is flowing the Patriots way which tells me some “sharps” are really liking the Pats tonight.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
What’s on the table today?: Today we look ahead to Sunday of Week 14 with a tasty AFC matchup between the Raiders and Colts in Las Vegas.
The Raiders are coming off of an improbable win at buzzer against the dysfunctional New York Jets who promptly fired Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams in the wake. The Raiders winning that game 31-28 set in motion a TON of statistical betting indicators that scream to take the OVER play in this one, the TOTAL being just 51 ½ points.
With the Raiders scoring 26.92 per game, allowing an average of 28.92 points, and the Colts scoring an average of over 27, while a still staunch-type defense allowing over 22 points per contest, this game has the makings of a 34-31 affair.
Consider how many points the Raiders surrendered to the Jets (28) who have yet to win a game at 0-12, while over the past three games the Colts have given up 31 (GB), 45 (TEN), and 20 (HOU) points respectively. Now consider that the Raiders have scored 30 points or more in 4 of their past 5 contests and you see some serious trends – the OVER is play.
Finally, take a look at these numbers from Winnersandwhiners.com showing just how good the OVER play looks based upon the recent trends, and I think you’ll agree, we made another smart “Rocky’s Supper Club Daily Play”.
- Over is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Raiders last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.