Dave Carney 12/8/2020
Overall record: 106-79
How did I get here?: Last night in game two of the Monday Night double-header, we took the Buffalo Bills (+1) on the road vs the 49ers, who ironically, were also “on the road” in Arizona due to California’s COIVD issues.
The Bills and 49ers really did play a good game, but it was a standout, in-the-bright-lights type outing from Bills QB Josh Allen that was the real story. Allen was simply outstanding throwing for 375 yards, 4TD’s, and breaking Jim Kelly & Drew Bledsoe’s team record for 300+ yard / 3+TD games in a season with FOUR. Kelly and Bledsoe each had three in the 1991 and 2002 seasons respectively.
This was a game where the numbers and metrics really did feel heavily sided towards the Bills, however, the odds-makers were showing a lot of confidence in the 49ers setting them up as a 1 point favorite when we took the game on Monday morning. By the time it was kick-off some books had the Bills bet all the way down to a 3 point favorite (-3) making our play at PLUS one (+1) a real steal. That’s a FOUR point total difference on the spread in a matter of hours, showing it really does pay to listen in the mornings!
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
What’s on the table today? Today’s play is another in which the numbers are strong, the match up is good, and the setting is perfect….for us to take a BAD BEAT!
I’m saying that to start off with simply because, when evaluating today’s play, taking the Baltimore Ravens MINUS eight (-8) at home versus the lowly Dallas Cowboys, it seems too good to be true. Yes, the Ravens are a mess with their schedule, injuries, and COVID. Yes, Lamar Jackson is having what seems like a “sophomore” slump after breaking out in what was actually his sophomore season in 2019, ending with an MVP, and yes it does seem like Dallas would really have something to play for.
But…that isn’t going to matter tonight in my estimation.
Baltimore’s defense is real, even when injured. Last week against the Steelers with literally half of their roster out with injury or COVID issues, the Ravens managed to hold Pittsburgh to just 19 points, and score 14 of their own, easily covering the (-10) spread odds-makers had on it.
Lamar Jackson will be back tonight, as will a host of other Ravens. The Cowboys are garbage and only get to be eight point underdogs because they are a VERY popular public bet. Since Dak went down the Cowboys are averaging just 14.7 points per game, and the Ravens are giving up just 19.3 per on the season. This doesn’t stack up well for Dallas.
The Cowboys have shown zero ability to run the football in Mike McCarthy’s offense (no surprise to Packers fans) and that feeds right into what Baltimore does extremely well. Stop the pass AND run. The Ravens rank 9th overall in passing D, 8th in total yards allowed, and 3rd in scoring D at 19.3 points per game.
Lastly the Cowboys have suffered another major blow on the injury front as they’ve put they’re best offensive lineman on the injured reserve, losing Zack Martin for the season.
This might get real ugly real quick, if you can, jump all over Baltimore (-8).
Trends Are Courtesy Of Covers.com
- 3-10 ATS (against the spread) vs. a team with a winning record
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss
14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December