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Cam in L.A? Ok, I’ll take the Pats!

Cam in L.A? Ok, I’ll take the Pats!

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Dave Carney 12/9/2020

Overall record: 107-79 

How did I get here?: Another solid cover for us as the Ravens did what we expected they would based upon the numbers, but, it really was a game that if Dallas actually did have designs to threaten to be a less than embarrassing team would have looked better in. 

Alas, led by former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys are a MESS and the Baltimore Ravens win 34-17 easily covering the **MINUS eight (-8)** point spread. 

For Dallas it wasn’t just another loss, which would have been bad enough. It was an out-right dismemberment as Baltimore simply ran the ball down the throat and up the gut of the Cowboys “defense” to the tune of 294 rushing yards. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson only had to throw 17 times for 107 yards to get 2 TD’s making what happened on the ground that much worse.

Dallas is in a complete free-fall, and with their last four games against teams that all have losing records (CIN, SF, PHI, NYG), it’s going to be ugly watching them lose most (if not all) of those remaining games while Jerry Jones watches with mccabe interest from his luxury box of horrors! 

By the way, Mike McCarthy is NO LONGER a “highly successful coach”…

**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information**

What’s on the table today?: Today we begin to look forward to NFL’s Week 14 schedule by jumping on a line that I think will see some movement between now and game-time; New England on the road facing the Los Angeles Rams.

While the Rams are no doubt the better overall team, today’s play is New England PLUS five and a half (+5.5), with strong consideration going to taking the game UNDER (45) bet as well, which may come back into play this week.

The breakdown for the game is fairly simple. Bill Belichick is coaching his team up and putting the screws to opponents on the defensive side of the football.

Los Angeles is moving the ball up and down the field fairly well, but their 34 points in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals was their highest scoring output of the season, meaning they haven’t been a dominant scoring team at all. That plays perfectly into the hands of the Patriots who held the Charges and red-hot QB Justin Herbert to just 188 passing yards in a 45-0 route last week.

The Patriots on D are solid ranking 12th in total defense, 14th against the pass, 18th against the run, and 7th in points allowed, giving up just 21.3 ppg, and this is a MUST win game if New England wants to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I really hate betting against Belichick when his back’s against the wall. Hasn’t proven out to be a good betting strategy! 

I like the Rams as a team, I really do. Aaron Donald is probably the best player not a QB in the league right now and Sean McVay is a heck of a coach, but we’ve seen too many instances this year where a tough D on the other side, and good coaching can be too much for the Rams. (look at games vs MIA, TB for more evidence)

While Los Angeles very well may win this game, I see the final score coming in somewhere around 24-21 (Rams) or 27-24 (Rams), or a straight up win for the Pats not out of the question.

To summarize, yes, this is a bit of a risky play, but checking out deeper numbers from Covers.com and judging by recent play of both teams, I feel solid about today’s play; New England PLUS five and a half (+5.5)

Trends Are Courtesy Of Covers.com

New England is:

  • 38-17-3 ATS (against the spread) in their last 58 games as an underdog
  • 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points

Los Angeles is:

  • 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
  • 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win
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