Dave Carney 3/16/2021
What’s on the table today?: Betting Preview: Lakers (-8.5) vs Timberwolves (Total 223)
Tonight the Lakers return home to the Staples Center after drubbing the Dubs, 128-97 Monday night in Oakland. The Lakers were a small favorite last night (-2) with plenty of sharp money coming in on the Warriors (who’ve been red hot w/Steph Curry) to cover. That of course did not happen with the Lakers simply blowing out the Warriors, and LeBron James notching another triple double (22 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists).
The Wolves have been off since a Sunday night 114-112 win over the Portland Trailblazers with rookie number one pick Anthony Edwards going for a career high 34 in the win. Minnesota is still trying to get their legs under them with a new coach after the firing of Ryan Saunders, and have won two of their last three. However, prior to these three games, the Wolves had been on a nine game losing streak, with five of those nine losses coming after the team parted ways with Saunders.
The spread for tonight’s game LAL (-8.5) has moved a half point from open at LAL (-9) and the Total has been bet down from 225 to 223.
Minnesota is currently one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA giving up an average of 116.8 points per game (28th in the NBA(, while the Lakers have been among the best defensive teams in the league this year allowing opponents just 105.9 (2nd in the NBA) setting up tonight’s matchup to go UNDER the total of 223. Recent trends from Scoresandodds.com also suggest that when the Lakers are in play, and the total is over 220, playing the UNDER is coming in at a whopping 72.7% of the time for a record of 16-6.
Against the Spread (ATS) trends from Covers.com also show us that the Lakers seem to be the play tonight as well with L.A. going 4-1 ATS over their last 5, and 11-5 in their last 16 games on zero days rest.
The T-wolves trends also from Covers.com don’t look as good ATS with Minnesota going just 1-4 in their last 5 games on the road, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a dog. Considering the Lakers are playing in the second night of a back to back however, and still without Anthony Davis playing tonight’s game ATS might be risky even when you take into consideration these trends.
However, look at how last night went for L.A., on the road, versus a Warriors team who they hadn’t beaten ATS in longer than I can remember, and you might just put aside the “back-to-back” hesitation and go with the Lakers (-8.5). At this point, with LeBron on the court, and the Lakers knowing they NEED to keep up the pace in the Western Conference without Davis, maybe it’s just a bad idea to bet against them ATS or otherwise.
For my money, I’d make a play on the UNDER 223 tonight considering the Lakers defense, and that this will be a home game for them. Minnesota is such a work in progress right now it’s hard to put much stock into how they’ll perform, at home or on the road.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
