Dave Carney 3/15/2021
What’s on the table today?: Bucks vs Wizards betting preview & new odds to win the NCAA Tournament for the top four Big Ten programs *(ILL, OSU, MICH, IOWA)*
Bucks (-8.5) @ Wizards 242 total
This morning on-air when I read the line for the Bucks at Washington game it had opened at MIL (-9.5), but in the hours since has moved down a full point to MIL (-8.5).
The total for tonight’s game also opened different from where it sits now at 238 ½, which shows us that the early money was coming in on the Wizards to cover, and for the total to go OVER. While I highlighted this morning some recent trends that suggested you probably wouldn’t want to make a play on the spread (if you’re wanting to make a bet on MIL to cover), but perhaps the TOTAL would be the way to go, with some indicators pointing to the UNDER. However, I would now advise some caution on both plays with the adjustments to both the line and the total.
If you are going to make a play on tonight’s game (ATS) consider the following trends from Oddsshark.com to help guide your decision making::
- The Bucks are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall
- The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games
- The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played in March
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- The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall
- The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games
- The Wizards are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Monday
When looking at the recent trends from Covers.com on the total play, you’ll see that there are indicators pointing to both the OVER and UNDER for tonight, making this game a tough one to pick:
- Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Monday games.
- Over is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 8-2 in Wizards last 10 games following a straight up loss.
As you can see, with such a dichotomy of trends for both the OVER and UNDER tonight, with metrics working both for and against each team this will be a tough one to pick. If I were making a play on tonight’s game I would lean strongly to WAS (+8.5) and the UNDER 242.
New Betting odds for MICH, IOWA, ILL and OSU to win the NCAA Tournament
The Big Ten put a conference record NINE teams in the NCAA Tournament this season, something that’s only happened three times before, by any conference, in NCAA history.
Staggering.
That said, the bottom of the Big Ten’s nine teams (Purdue 4 seed, Wisconsin 9 seed, Maryland and Rutgers 10 seeds, and Mich St 11 seed) don’t realistically stand a chance of powering through the NCAA Tourney and making it to (and winning) the final game. Of the bunch, Purdue and Michigan State probably have the best chances.
This leaves Big Ten Champion (ILL no 1 seed), (MICH no 1 see), Big Ten runner-up (OSU no 2 seed), and (IOWA no 2 seed) as the four Big Ten teams that legitimately have a shot to win this year’s Tourney and take home the first National Championship for the conference since 2000 when Michigan State won it. **The 2002 Maryland team was still part of the ACC and not the Big TEN**
It’s perhaps a little surprising to some to see Michigan open with the best odds of the conference teams in discussion at (+600) over the Big Ten Champs (ILL +700), but anybody who watched what this Michigan team is capable of this year probably doesn’t have a problem with them being slightly more valued at +600.
After Michigan and Illinois you do have a bit of a drop-off to Iowa at (+1600) and OSU (+2400), but all four of these clubs are in the top 8 for best odds to win it all (OSU coming in at number 8). As a matter of fact, Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa are numbers 3, 4, and 5 respectively in best odds of any team to win according to Fanduel.com.
This year, perhaps more than ever, sports fans are clamoring for March Madness action. I am too. Enjoy all the festivities, soak it in, and if we can, let’s take a quick pause and remember just how far we’ve come over the last year when life shut down, and how far some of us still have to go.
Cheers, and let’s get ready for some MADNESS!!
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
