Dave Carney 12/23/2020
Overall record: 109-86
How did I get here?: Another over-estimation that’s how. I way overestimated the NBA’s lack of fundamental defense and just how free-flowing this game is.
Yesterday I took the Lakers/Clippers game to go UNDER the total of 223 points. The stats, recent history, the Lakers only 72 days removed from their last FINALS game, the ring ceremony, all of this, suggested a team (or teams) that would come out tight and battle to a low(er) scoring finish.
The Lakers did their part to start….getting blown out early and missing nearly everything to help aid me in going UNDER…but the Lakers and Clippers turned out to both be good teams after all and that led to a modest (but still not UNDER) total of 225, Clippers winning 116-109.
The NBA season is just one day old, but after what we saw in both the Nets route (which was epic by the way) of the Warriors, and the Lakers/Clippers match-up, I think the OVER play might be a safe one in quite a few spots this campaign.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information*
What’s on the table today?: Back to the Association for a second helping in Bean-town, Bucks at Celtics!
As an admitted Bucks fan since moving to Wisconsin, my heart is at play tonight. That’s one of the reasons I’m not making a play on the point spread (MIL -4), but on the TOTAL of tonight’s game 225. When making bets on teams you really enjoy, playing the TOTAL tends to give you a break. You can bet the game, not “say” who’s going to win or lose necessarily, and simply root for an outcome in TOTAL, placing your wager on the teams going OVER or UNDER a particular number.
That is what I’m doing today, taking the Bucks/Celtics OVER the total of 225.
Simply looking at the recent history of these two teams when playing in Boston shows us the OVER is a safe play having hit in 14 of the last 19 games. The total has also finished OVER in five of the past seven road games for the Bucks, and five of the past six when entering as a favorite which they are (-4).
Another major factor to take into consideration in making the OVER play in tonight’s game, these teams can score. Flat out score.
Last season the Bucks ranked number ONE in team offense, the Celtics FIFTH, and judging by the opening slate of games last night 125-99 Nets over GS & 116-109 Clippers over Lakers), these trends shouldn’t be ignored. Scoring is KING (outside of LeBron) in the NBA, and the OVER in tonight’s game is too tasty to pass up!
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane.