Dave Carney 9/29/2021
What’s on the table today?: NFL Week 4: My value plays
Week 4 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Jaguars. That game will start us off on a slate of matchups that provide some real intrigue (think Rams v Cards, Pats v Bucs, etc.) as well as some games which I think provide some real value from a betting perspective.
Below are the games that as of right now, are standing out as my “Value Plays” in Week 4. Our Week 4 lines come from BetMGM and our Trends courtesy of Covers.com
- Lions @ Bears (-3) / total 42 – Lions +3
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- Lions moneyline +125
- Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 4.
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- Bears moneyline -150
- Colts @ Dolphins (-1.5) / total 43.5 – OVER
- Colts moneyline +105
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- Dolphins moneyline -125
- Browns (-1.5) @ Vikings / total 52.5 – Vikings +1.5
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- Browns moneyline -125
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- Vikings moneyline +105
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- Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.
- Titans (-7.5) @ Jets / total 46 – Titans -7.5 / UNDER
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- Titans moneyline -350
- Titans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Jets moneyline +290
- Steelers @ Packers (-7) / total 44.5 – Packers -7
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- Steelers moneyline +240
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- Packers moneyline -300
- Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
- Buccaneers (-6.5) @ Patriots / total 49 – Bucs -6.5 / UNDER
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- Buccaneers moneyline -275
- Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games in October.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
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- Patriots moneyline +225
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
