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NFL Week 4: My “Value” plays

NFL Week 4: My “Value” plays

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Dave Carney 9/29/2021      

What’s on the table today?: NFL Week 4: My value plays

Week 4 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Jaguars. That game will start us off on a slate of matchups that provide some real intrigue (think Rams v Cards, Pats v Bucs, etc.) as well as some games which I think provide some real value from a betting perspective. 

Below are the games that as of right now, are standing out as my “Value Plays” in Week 4. Our Week 4 lines come from BetMGM and our Trends courtesy of Covers.com 

  • Lions @ Bears (-3) / total 42 Lions +3
    • Lions moneyline +125
    • Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    • Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 4.
    • Bears moneyline -150


  • Colts @ Dolphins (-1.5) / total 43.5 OVER 
    • Colts moneyline +105
  •  
    • Dolphins moneyline -125


  • Browns (-1.5) @ Vikings / total 52.5 Vikings +1.5
    • Browns moneyline -125
    • Vikings moneyline +105
    • Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.


  • Titans (-7.5) @ Jets / total 46 Titans -7.5 / UNDER
    • Titans moneyline -350
    • Titans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
    • Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games following a ATS loss.
    • Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
    • Jets moneyline +290

 

  • Steelers @ Packers (-7) / total 44.5 Packers -7
    • Steelers moneyline +240
    • Packers moneyline -300
    • Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    • Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.


  • Buccaneers (-6.5) @ Patriots / total 49 Bucs -6.5 / UNDER
    • Buccaneers moneyline -275
    • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
    • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
    • Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games as an underdog.
    • Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games in October.
    • Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Patriots moneyline +225

 

**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**

REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane

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