Dave Carney 8/4/2021
What’s on the table today?: NBA team Futures after a WILD first two days of Free-Agency
The start of NBA Free-Agency for an NBA guy like me, is sorta like Christmas in *August this year*. The Lakers are loading up, the Heat are making a strong push to contend again, and the Bucks are happy to retain Bobby Portis and bring back George Hill when he clears waivers from the Sixers.
In Chicago, the Bulls are making a splash with the acquisition of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozen, but how much, if at all, are these free-agent moves changing the way book makers see their teams’ odds?
Not much as it turns out, but there are a few clear “winners and losers” from the first two days of Free-Agency. The Denver Nuggets went from +2000 to +2500, a steep drop. The Miami Heat went from +3500 to +3000, which has them among the top-10 on the market. The biggest loser seems to be the Toronto Raptors who saw their odds drop from +8000 to +15000. It’s also clear that the oddsmakers see the NBA championship races as more or less a 3 or 4 team race. Of course, at this time last year, the Suns odds were given +6600 oods.
The Nets, Lakers and Bucks, in order as the team’s with the best odds before the start of Free-Agency are staying right where they are with Brooklyn at +230, the Lakers at +400 and the Bucks coming in at +800 showing that while some of the moves the Lakers made gave fans fits and starts, it did nothing to change where the book makers had them. Likewise for the Nets and Bucks who largely stood pat or retained one of their own (Blake Griffin for Brooklyn and Bobby Portis for the Bucks).
More is still to come in what has been a very entertaining first two days of open market action, but judging by how little movement there has been at the top of the heap, I don’t expect much more that pops up over the next few days to change that.