Dave Carney 12/16/2020
Overall record: 108-83
How did I get here?: Stupidity. Hubris. Thinking I could be better at something than I really am. I took another college basketball game, which has been a downfall for me, against all opinions that tried their hardest to sway me away from taking CLEMSON (+2) vs Virginia Tech.
The numbers all looked GREAT for Clemson to not only cover but WIN by a ton. That did not happen, because it’s college basketball, and I don’t know what I’m doing, Virginia Tech won 66-60.
Until I catch the degenerate bug for college hoops again (which will surely happen), I’m NOT betting another NCAA basketball game.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
What’s on the table today?: I’m going back to Vegas, that’s it, I’ve had it!!! Just kidding, I’m not MOVING back to Vegas, but I am taking a stab at Thursday Night Football’s game (Las Vegas Raiders playing host to the Los Angeles Chargers).
The Raiders and Chargers are classic divisional rivals and their games are always tough. However, over the past few weeks both of these teams have been in a state of flux.
For the Raiders, a 31-28 win in New York over the winless Jets that prompted the Jets to fire defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, followed up by a humbling 44-27 loss to the Colts at home.
Looking at the Chargers, they were run-out-of-the-building at home by the Patriots 45-0, and followed that game up with a 20-17 win over the Falcons who find new and creative ways to lose each week.
Both of these teams have shown some good stuff this year (Justin Herbert for the Chargers looks like a future MVP), but neither have been consistent, which is how I’ve decided on my bet for this game..I am taking the (UNDER) total score 53.
The Raiders defense is going to be helped by the addition of Rod Marinelli on the staff, and going against the Chargers who have scored (20, 0 & 17) respectively over their last three games, while averaging just 22.8 points per game this year, sets up very well for the UNDER play.
The Chargers and Raiders are also dealing with some potential injury concerns with the Raiders having listed Josh Jacobs (RB) on the injury report, and the Chargers having ALL of their top playmakers on the injury report (Keenan Allen, WR, Austin Ekeler, RB, Hunter Henry, TE, Mike Williams, WR) putting in doubt how well either offense will function.
Finally, when looking at the Prime-Time NFL matchups this season as another point of reference, the UNDER play has been pretty solid, coming in 62% of the time (25-15). Combined with those numbers combined with a lot of money coming in on the UNDER (started at 54.5 now down to 53), and you can see “sharp” bettors laying some heavy cash on the UNDER.
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane. Don’t take college basketball!
