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Will the Pack pass the (Minus) test?

Will the Pack pass the (Minus) test?


Dave Carney 12/11/2020

Overall record: 107-80 

How did I get here?: The Pats sucked that’s how. For the past two days I’d been touting how much I loved the Patriots PLUS five and a half points (+5.5) and the UNDER play. Sadly I took the Pats PLUS the points and got burned big time, Rams winning 24-3.

My rationale was solid, the numbers looked favorable, however its clear now, Cam Newton simply can’t perform at a high level consistently, the Patriots deficiencies on the offensive line especially are GLARING, and Bill Belichick may have met his future self in Sean McVay.

McVay by the way has guaranteed the Rams FOUR consecutive winning seasons. That hasn’t happened to ANY Rams team (L.A. or St Louis) since 1983-1986 when Eric Dikerson was the running back, and John Robinson was the Head Coach.

Like we talk about on the show, and as I try to reiterate in this column, sports betting is by no means an exact science, and while the numbers may look amazing in your favor, you can always watch what we did last night on Thursday Night Football and simply KNOW you’ve made the wrong bet in first quarter… it happens.

**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays check back through some previous columns for detailed information**

What’s on the table today?: Today’s play is by far the most controversial of the week, at least according to the listeners of WKTY. I’m taking the Green Bay Packers MINUS seven and a half points (-7.5) on the road versus the Lions,

The idea that seems to really be clinging to dissenters of taking the Pack (-7.5) are essentially hinging on to what happened between these two squads last season, and not what’s already happened between them this season. 

When the Packers and Lions played, as I discussed on the show this morning, the Lions ROARED out to a big 14-3 lead. By the half the Packers were up 17-14, and by the end of the game Green Bay had out-gained Detroit 488 yards to just 307, and the Packers won 42-21.

Since I could (and did) go on and on about the numbers this morning I want to try and simplify them here and hopefully explain why I feel so strongly about the Packers COVERING this spread on Sunday, so here goes:

  • In the past five games the Lions have won 2 and lost 3. In the Lions three loses they’ve been rocked (14, 20, 16). In the Lions two wins, they have won by a COMBINED seven points.
  • For the Packers, it’s been a four-and-one record over their past five, with three of the four wins coming by comfortable margins (17, 16, 14), the other win coming by (4). In the Packers lone loss to the Colts it took overtime, and Green Bay lost by 3 (34-31).

Now, take a look at how the Packers and Lions are doing ATS (against the spread) and I think you’ll agree…the play here is the Packers (-7.5).

Enjoy the weekend, and if this doesn’t come in – I already said – I’m willing to eat that crow..that’s how much I like Green Bay this Sunday!

Trends courtesy of covers.com

  • Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite
  • Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC North
  • Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.
  • Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
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