NBA Tuesday (Bucks, T-Wolves, Lakers) betting preview
Dave Carney 12/28/2021
What’s on the table today?: NBA Tuesday (Bucks, T-Wolves, Lakers) betting preview
After a perfect 3-0 Monday, hitting our play on the Dolphins/Saints game (MIA -3), and two NBA games (SA +6.5 & MEM +8) we’re going back to the “Association” where a loaded slate provides some nice value in three matchups I’ve keyed in on.
The first game we’re going to look at is our Milwaukee Bucks on the road in Orlando to face the struggling Magic. The Bucks are riding high and actually getting healthy at a time when most rosters, including the Magic, are getting decimated by injuries or COVID. When the books opened this game the Bucks were (-12) but as of now, they’re all the way up to (-14).
In the last meeting between these two teams the Bucks absolutely crushed the Magic, going ahead 77-36 after the opening two periods — Orlando’s largest halftime deficit in team history — and the lead grew to 51 points in the second half of an eventual 123-92 victory. However, in over 10,000 computer simulations using my current prediction model, the Bucks are laying far too many points tonight and because of that I’m going to be compelled to play the Magic (+14).
Our next game to play tonight is the Timberwolves (+4.5) at home versus the Knicks. The Wolves overcame an 11-point halftime deficit Monday night to edge the Boston Celtics 108-103 with Nathan Knight making his first NBA start and posting his first double-double, while Jaylen Nowell scored a career-high 29 points for Minnesota.
Oh yea, and Greg Monroe made his return to the NBA and made history as the 541st player to suit up in an NBA game this season, the most in the history of the league. That Monroe scored 11 points, grabbed 9 boards, and had 6 assists should definitely open eyes and land this dude a regular job again.
The Knicks haven’t played since Saturday afternoon, when Kemba Walker posted the first Christmas Day triple-double in franchise history in a 101-87 win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks.
Running this game through the same prediction model I used in the Bucks/Magic game, I’ve got the T-Wolves covering the (+4.5) spread, winning the game outright, and the total going over 213. My play for tonight will stay on the spread, and I’ll play the T-Wolves (+4.5).
Finally the struggling Lakers are in Houston trying to snap their five game losing streak against the Rockets who played without six rotation players after D.J. Augustin, Kenyon Martin Jr., Garrison Mathews and Jae’Sean Tate all entered health and safety protocols in advance of a 123-99 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Houston also played without its starting backcourt of Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) and rookie Jalen Green (rest) while taking a fourth consecutive loss, but both should be available Tuesday.
In my estimation the Lakers are the most disappointing team in the NBA this year and with Anthony Davis out for at least another 3 weeks, Russell Westbrook looking terribly out of sorts *(and outright bad on defense)* crushing the hopes of Lakers fans world wide. The computer model that I’ve used to help make each of my picks yesterday and today doesn’t have much confidence in the Lakers and their disjointed roster as the model shows the Rockets covering the (+5.5) spread, winning the game outright, and the total going over 226.5.
While it’s tempting to take the Rockets across the board I’m going to stay on the spread once again and will take the Rockets (+5.5). If Houston wins outright, and LeBron walks off in disgust and disgrace, I won’t be surprised….this year’s Lakers team has turned what “could” have been a dream like season into a nightmare…a nightmare with no quick end in sight.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
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