Dave Carney 11/5/2021
What’s on the table today?: Packers @ Chiefs (Betting Preview)
Where: Kansas City (Arrowhead Stadium) When: Sunday 3:25pm *(WKTY)*
Current Line: Packers (+7) / Kansas City (-7) / total 48
Since the news broke that Aaron Rodgers was not vaccinated and would not play on Sunday, thrusting the second year signal caller Jordan Love into action, the betting market has swung wildly towards the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs opened up as a 2 ½ point favorite, then the game got bet down to a “pick em” in many books before seeing the Chiefs swell to a 7 point favorite in light of Rodgers not playing. With Rodgers on the field the Packers have been great at covering the spread this season going 7-0 in their last 7 overall and 6-0 ATS following an ATS win (which the Packers had against the Cardinals on TNF).
For Kansas City, this has been a dismal year so far going just 4-4 and currently tied for last place in the AFC West with the Denver Broncos. In fact, the ATS performances for the Chiefs this year and last have been even worse than the records would indicate with Kansas City failing to cover the spread in 15 of their last 19 contests.
That the Packers are playing without Aaron Rodgers and the number jumped so much does tell you how valuable Rodgers is to the team and ATS, but I don’t think this means Green Bay can’t win outright, or at the very least cover the spread. I look at this game Sunday and see a ton of value in taking the Packers (+7) and taking the UNDER 48. Some recent trends (found on Covers.com) would back up these plays, take a look below.
- Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up win
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
