Dave Carney 7/16/2021
What’s on the table today?: Bucks (+4) at Suns (-4) / total 218: NBA Finals Game 5
Yesterday in this space I outlined the early betting lines and gave an overall breakdown of what to expect in Game 5 of the NBA Finals in Phoenix on Saturday night.
Since the writing of yesterday’s “Rocky’s Daily Play” not much has changed on the betting angles. The line, which hovered around Suns (-4 / 4.5) has held at Suns (-4), and the total which was hovering around 218 – 218 ½ has largely centered on 217 ½ in most Vegas books and off-shore. **I’m using BetMGM for Saturday’s play**
My opinion of tomorrow night’s game hasn’t changed as far as the spread or outcome is concerned, I like the Bucks (+4) and to win outright. Looking at the total however, and thanks to some back and forth with our Sports Betting insider Jon Denton, I’m now sensing the OVER 218 is the play as opposed to the UNDER which I was strongly considering yesterday.
When I took a look at these recent trends for both the Bucks to cover (+4) and the total to go OVER 218, I think you’ll see the same thing I am. the Bucks and the OVER look like the smart plays:
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a road underdog
- Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 playoff games as a favorite
Since we’ve had an extra day to contemplate this game and it’s potential betting outcome I’m going to make the following plays for Saturday’s Game 5:
- Bucks (+4) at +145 from BetMGM
- OVER 217 ½ at -115
- Bucks on the Moneyline +125
Please note that on Saturday I’m making all of these plays separately and individually, not using a parlay card which would have to see ALL of these three legs come in to win the bet. If one of these plays doesn’t come in, I’m not completely screwed and can still make up some ground. Parlays are VERY attractive for their payout, but like we saw in my Game 4 play, two of three isn’t good enough.
Fear the Deer – and place straight bets for Saturday…thank me later..
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane