Dave Carney 5/10/2021
What’s on the table today?: Betting Preview: Bucks (-6 ½ ) at Spurs / Total 233 ½
Tonight the Bucks are looking for their 6th win in a row, on the road in San Antonio and facing a Spurs team that is fighting for it’s Playoff life.
The Bucks enter tonight’s contest a (-6 ½) favorite after opening up at (-7 ½) with a total of 233 ½, down a point from open at 234 ½. On Friday the Bucks and Rockets did what I expected them to do, go OVER the total of 231 ½ by a large margin, the final score Milwaukee 141, Houston 133. I did not think the Bucks would cover the very large (-17) point spread, and they did not.
The Spurs are coming into tonight’s game on a much different trajectory, losing 6 of their last 7, most recently getting absolutely handled by the Portland Trailblazers on Saturday night 124-102. San Antonio is desperately looking to hold on to their tenuous 10th spot in the Western Conference (which is the final “play-in” spot) making them a very dangerous opponent for the Bucks (ATS). Did you catch what I just did there? Dangerous (ATS) or against the spread. Not saying I like the Spurs to win this one, I just don’t like them to LOSE by more than 7.
So, what do I like in tonight’s game? I’m looking at a play on the 233 ½ total. Taking a look at some recent trends thanks to Covers.com I COULD make an argument to take the UNDER 233 ½ in this game:
- Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games as a road favorite. (MIL is a -6.5 favorite)
- Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 games following a ATS loss. (MIL beat HOU 141-133 on Friday but were -17 favorites)
However, I’ve also got strong indicators that also point to a big scoring night from the Spurs (terrible Bucks defense of late) and Bucks (they lead the NBA in scoring after all) and find these trends from Covers.com to be a bit more indicative of what I think we’ll see in tonight’s game:
- Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 Monday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. (Spurs have a home winning % of just 39%)
- Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. (Spurs had Sunday off after a Saturday loss to POR)
In my final analysis, I do see this game being a bit more high scoring, I mean hey, the Bucks gave up 133 to a Houston team that is essentially filled with G-League players on Friday! With the Spurs really looking to make a push, the Bucks rather porous defense, and plenty of indicators suggesting an OVER 233 ½ play is a decent one to make, that’s the way I’m going; OVER 233 ½.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane