Dave Carney 3/30/2021
What’s on the table today?: #2 Houston vs #1 Baylor – Final Four Betting Preview
On Monday night we saw the first two teams punch their tickets to the Final Four with Houston outlasting the upstart Oregon State Beavers 67-61, and the Baylor Bears proving to be way too much for the Arkansas Razorbacks in an 81-72 win.
Tonight the #6 USC Trojans are looking to upset the #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs and the #11 UCLA Bruins are looking to be the lowest seed in the Final Four (since Loyola of Chicago in 2018) as they face off against #1 Michigan.
Those games were the focus of yesterday’s “Daily Play”, so today, I’m jumping all the way ahead to this Saturday and the game we already know will be played between #2 Houston and #1 Baylor. Below I’ve put together the most recent lines thanks to our friends at VSIN and have taken a look at recent betting trends thanks to Covers.com. Hopefully, these pieces of information will give you a better outlook on the first of the two Final Four match-ups, and possibly, an early betting advantage for you to use against your friends and co-workers.
Saturday (4/3/2021) Final Four
- #2 Houston vs #1 Baylor (-5) total 135
Trends ATS (against the spread)
- Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
- Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. (I like the Baylor Bears to cover the -5 point spread)
Trends for plays on the Total
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Under is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 12-2 in Bears last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 13-3 in Bears last 16 overall.
- Over is 13-3 in Bears last 16 games as a favorite. (I like this game to go OVER the total of 135, however, early money on the UNDER pushed this game from it’s open at 132 ½ to where it is now which gives me some pause. If Houston has trouble scoring versus the Beavers, will they be able to match-up against the talented athletes on Baylor’s squad?)
*For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane