Dave Carney 1/19/2021
Overall record: 5-3
NBA: (1-0 Teasers) (1-1 Totals) (0-1 (ATS)
College Football: (0-1 Totals)
NFL: (2-0 Teasers) (1-0 (ATS)
How did I get here?: Holding on to my record of 5-3 in 2021 with yesterday’s play being a Two-Team-Teaser for this weekend’s AFC and NFC Championship game.
If you didn’t read yesterday’s column I’d recommend you do so, as well as keep yourself tuned into the WKTY Morning Show for more info and emerging stats and metrics to back my plays, specifically those for the AFC and NFC Championship games.
Today, for ease of use however, I’ve included below a look at my card from yesterday so you can see what I’m looking at:
TWO-TEAM-TEASER (6 points / -110)
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) teaser adjusted line from (-3.5)
Buffalo Bills (+9) teaser adjusted line from (+3)
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
What’s on the table today?: Big TEN college hoops with Purdue on the road facing #15 Ohio State.
As I’ve talked about a number of times on the program recently, college hoops during this pandemic season are really tough for me to gauge, but tonight’s Big TEN match up I do believe provides some value in taking OSU (-4.5).
The line on this game opened with the Buckeyes as three point favorites (-3), but at the time of this writing had been bet all the way down to OSU (-5). I took this game this morning at OSU (-4.5) and feel lucky to do so.
In Ohio State’s last three games the Buckeyes are undefeated, beating ranked teams in Rutgers (since fallen out of Top 25) and Illinois (currently #22 falling from #14 after the loss to OSU), winning by no less than 6 in any game. The Buckeyes are also playing some of the best offense in the Big TEN posting the league’s third best scoring average of 75.9 per game while getting to the line a robust 21.8 times per game. Purdue is a tough defensive unit but will have problems slowing down OSU.
The Boilermakers have been relying on their defense to win games, and have found mixed results. Against the Hawkeyes, Purdue was able to hold the #4 team in the country to 70, versus Michigan State the Boilermakers gave up just 53. The problem for Purdue tonight won’t be on the defensive side of the ball, it will be on offense.
Purdue is currently 11th in the Big TEN in scoring averaging just 68.1 points per, and their shooting from range has been way below league average, hitting at a flimsy clip of 31.9%, and is in the bottom third of the league in trips to the foul line. All of this sets up Purdue to hang tight in many Big TEN games, but will be an issue in covering tonight’s four and a half point spread versus the Buckeyes.
When examining the numbers ATS (against the spread) we also see that Ohio State is holding some decided betting advantages over Purdue, which of course is the purpose of this space. Thanks to some trends I’ve pulled this morning from Covers.com and in combination with the teams stats described above, leave me feeling pretty strong about today’s “Rocky’s Daily Play”.
I expect this game to be close up and until near the end of the second half, however the Buckeyes should be too much for the Boilermakers, and I’m predicting a score somewhere around OSU 77 / PUR 69.
- Ohio State: Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Ohio State: Buckeyes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Purdue: Boilermakers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Purdue: Boilermakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane.