Dave Carney 5/7/2021
What’s on the table today?: Betting Preview: Bucks (-17) vs Rockets / Total 231 ½
The Bucks are looking for their 5th win in a row, against a Houston Rockets team that beat Milwaukee in Houston 143-136 on April 29th. While that looks like a great win for the Rockets (which it kind of was) it was also a win in which Giannis exited just 49 seconds into the game and didn’t return.
Currently Milwaukee is 42-24 and just a half game behind the Brooklyn Nets for 2nd in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. With the Nets loss on Thursday 113-109 to the Dallas Mavericks and an off-day on Friday, the Bucks have an opportunity with a win to leapfrog the Nets and take over the 2nd seed. That would be the BEST CASE scenario for this Bucks team who’ll need (in my opinion) as favorable playoff schedule as possible in order to give this squad the best shot to make it to the Conference, or NBA Finals.
The Rockets are on the exact opposite side of the NBA spectrum this season, posting a woeful record of 16-50, by far the worst record in the league. That Houston beat the Bucks eight days ago shouldn’t be taken into account tonight. The Bucks will absolutely win tonight, the question is just by how much.
Which leads me to this….take the Bucks (-17) if you have a strong stomach, that’s a ton to lay, however some recent trends show us that might not be a bad play thanks to Covers.com:
Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
However, we’re also looking at some strong trends on the total (231 ½) that will lead me to my play on this game, OVER 231 ½. The way Milwaukee has been playing on offense and defense have seen the Bucks go over in many spots that will mirror tonight’s game as you’ll notice here thanks again to Covers.com:
Over is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
If you’re feeling REALLY strong about tonight’s game, and feeling a bit lucky too, I wouldn’t be against making a parlay out of this matchup with the Bucks (-17) at -110 vig, and taking the OVER 231 ½ total. That might be too risky, and again, you have to check different books for the best vig, but it would pay out a tidy sum.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
