Dave Carney 3/23/2021
What’s on the table today?: A betting preview for a TRIO of NBA games on Tuesday night.
The NBA on Tuesday night will get the full attention of the basketball betting public with the Men’s NCAA Tournament on hold until Saturday and the start of the Sweet 16.
Tonight a TRIO of NBA games intrigues me as the Lakers (without LeBron or AD) will be taking on the New Orleans Pelicans (-6) in New Orleans, the Denver Nuggets (-7 ½) on the road versus the quickly sinking Orlando Magic, and the red-hot Brooklyn Nets in Portland to face the Blazers (-1 ½).
Off-the-bat, the Nuggets (-7 ½) with a total of just 216 ½ seems like the best play of the night, with advanced metrics suggesting the Nuggets should be somewhere around a (-10) favorite in tonight’s game. The Nuggets recently completed a five game home stand with an upset loss to the Pelicans on Sunday, and for a team like Denver, nothing tastes as sweet as getting back to winning on the road, after losing a tough one at home. After some early struggles this year the Nuggets seem to be back on track with a record of 25-17 and will look to pounce on a depleted Magic team that’s recently heard forward Aaron Gordon request a trade.
The Magic as mentioned are sinking right now, losers of 10 of their last 11 and seem to be finding new ways NOT to win each night out, setting up an ATS (against the spread) play here for the Nuggets perfectly. Taking into consideration some recent trends ATS for Denver as well makes tonight’s game a tasty play against the number for the Nuggets.
- Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Next up the Lakers, without LeBron or AD in New Orleans (-6) versus the Pelicans who beat the Nuggets on Sunday after losing a pair to the Blazers. Without LeBron or AD the Lakers are in a tough spot, and tonight facing off against former Lakers’ Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart alongside former Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe and of course Zion Williamson, I’m not loving the Lakers chances, ATS or otherwise.
Taking a quick peek at some of the recent trends for the Pels ATS we can also see that, at least for tonight, the betting money could easily go to New Orleans in this nationally televised spot.
- Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Pelicans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Finally the RED HOT Brooklyn Nets (winners of 15 of their last 17) are in Portland (-1 ½) taking on a semi-hot Blazers team who’s won 3 of 4, falling to the Mavericks on Sunday by a whopping 40 points 132-92.
The saving grace here tonight for Portland lies in the fact that Kevin Durant is still out, Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out, and James Harden is listed as day-to-day. Essentially, if none of the Nets best players play, and all of the Blazers top performers do, Portland should win. But there lies the rub…why are the bookmakers only giving Portland (-1 ½) at home, versus a team without potentially all of their stars? That’s the question you really have to ponder if you’re considering making a bet on this game.
An answer can possibly be found in the sheer volume of numbers and trends pointing towards the Nets with some staggering success ATS (against the spread) in recent weeks.
- Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
- Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
With that in mind, I’d like to leave you with something that my father used to say to me a lot: “Son, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Be careful when betting on statistics”.
Hmmmm…well….either way ENJOY, HAVE FUN, and don’t take it too seriously if you lose!
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
