Big Ten Tourney: Round 1 betting preview

Dave Carney 3/10/2021    

What’s on the table today?: Big Ten Tourney Tip Off betting preview: Minnesota vs Northwestern & Nebraska vs Penn State.

Minnesota vs Northwestern (5:30p BTN)

Minnesota enters the Big 10 Tournament having lost seven straight games. Head coach Richard Pitino continues to feel the heat considering the fact that his squad was in the thick of things at 6-7 in the conference before falling apart. Some of that could be attributed to injuries as 7-0 center Liam Robbins (11.7ppg, 2.7bpg, 6.6rpg) has not played since Feb. 20 and is not expected to play on Wednesday.

The Wildcats however have won three straight games (after losing 13 straight) and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season after defeating Minnesota, Maryland at home (60-55) and Nebraska (79-78) at home on March 7. In the game on Sunday, six players scored in double figures as the Wildcats made 53% of their shots and 44% (11-25) from beyond the arc.

Tonight expect this to be a close, good game, with Northwestern opening as a (-2) favorite which has been bet down to (-1.5) showing some sharp money has come in a bit on the Gophers. That said when you take a look at the recent trends ATS thanks to Covers.com the play does look like the Wildcats are the team to take ATS.

 Minnesota is:

• 0-7 ATS last 7 overall.
• 0-6 ATS last 6 after an ATS loss.

Northwestern is:

• 4-0 ATS last 4 after an ATS loss. (Northwestern’s last reg season game 79-78 win over Nebraska didn’t cover which is why it’s still an ATS loss)

Nebraska vs Penn State

Nebraska finished in last place at 7-19 (3-16 Big Ten), including a tough 79-78 loss at the buzzer against the Northwestern Wildcats as a seven-point road underdog last Sunday to close out the regular season. Penn State finished up with a nice 66-61 upset of the Maryland Terrapins on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog to earn the No. 11 seed at 10-13 (7-12 Big Ten).

Nebraska has been better against the spread at 12-13 and has covered in three of its last four games, including a blowout 72-51 win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as an eight-point underdog. Overs are just 11-14 for the Cornhuskers, but five of their last six games have gone over the betting total.

The Nittany Lions were unable to keep up in the rugged Big Ten overall this season, but won three of their last four games including a road win over a likely NCAA Tournament team in Maryland last weekend. After Maryland led by as many as 16 points in the first half and looked in total command midway through the second, Penn State went off for 30 points in the final 10 minutes including runs of 11-0 and 15-2 to earn the victory.

Penn State is now above .500 against the spread at 12-11 and covered in each of its last two games after blowing out Minnesota earlier in the week. Overs are 10-13 for the Nittany Lions after the defensive struggle against Maryland went under the betting total.

Tonight’s game opened with the Nittany Lions favored by seven (-7) and has since moved to Penn St (-6.5). Again when looking for ATS trends our friends at Covers.com have what looks to be indicators that Northwestern (-6.5) should be the play tonight:

• Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.

Similarly, for Minnesota, the ATS numbers show that taking Northwestern (-6.5) is the solid play with these rather atrocious ATS stats going against the Gophers:

• Golden Gophers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
• Golden Gophers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
• Golden Gophers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Golden Gophers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Golden Gophers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
• Golden Gophers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to follow these trends and see that Minnesota has not performed well ATS, or in general this year, but that’s why they play the game, right? You just never know. 

However, tonight, I feel that the numbers will tell the tale and Northwestern will be gearing up to face Wisconsin on Thursday and the Nittany Lions getting ready to face OSU on Thursday as well.

**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**