Dave Carney 2/12/2021
What’s on the table today?: Today we’re looking at a couple of the games that Wisconsin hoops fans should be interested in; tonight’s Bucks @ Jazz game and Sunday’s Badgers vs #3 Michigan Big Ten showdown.
As of the writing of this article there is no line for the WISC/MICH game, however, there are some statistical indications that may help us determine how we WOULD bet on this game if there were a line out today. Typically for basketball games, as opposed to football, there won’t be a line on the market until the day of the game.
The Bucks at Jazz however does have a line with UTAH coming in at (-1 ½). The number opened early this morning at UTAH (-2) but was quickly brought down at most books.
Let’s start with the Bucks at Jazz and take a look at what our friends at Covers.com have for us in betting trends:
The top supporting trends for this game, found on Covers.com, are:
- Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
- Bucks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Bucks are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 head-to-head meetings in Utah.
- Jazz are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Jazz are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Jazz are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 games following an ATS win.
The trends you’re seeing above make the smart play tonight UTAH (-1 ½) and the OVER.
Switching over to Wisconsin hosting Michigan on Sunday at the Kohl Center and we’ll have to rely upon straight team stats for now. Since Michigan hasn’t played in nearly a month, some of these stats may not hold on Sunday, however, we can use the stats to try and come up with an idea of where this line “should” be.
Team Stats
|
TEAM |
PTS |
PA |
FG% |
REB |
AST |
BLK |
STL |
STRK |
|
MICH |
79.7 |
65.4 |
50.9 |
39.6 |
17.4 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
W2 |
|
WISC |
70.8 |
62.4 |
43.2 |
34.4 |
13.3 |
3.8 |
5.9 |
W1 |
Michigan Last 5
DATE RESULT
1/22/21 @PUR W70-53
1/19/21 vsMD W87-63
1/16/21 @MINN L75-57
1/12/21 vsWISC W77-54
1/6/21 vsMINN W82-57
Wisconsin Last 5
DATE RESULT
2/10/21 @NEB W61-48
2/6/21 @ILL L75-60
2/2/21 vsPSU W72-56
1/30/21 @PSU L81-71
1/27/21 @MD W61-55
Judging by both teams’ recent performance we can expect to see a line somewhere around MICH (-8) or (-9). The Badgers are a much better team at home than on the road for sure, but Michigan will be playing with some VERY reseted guys, and the Badgers are coming off of one of their worst shooting performances of the season in a 61-48 win over NEB on Wednesday.
I always pull for the Badgers, but if the number does come out with Michigan being a favorite but at a lower number, think -4 or -5, I don’t think I’d be able to stay away from taking MICH minus the points.
Have a great weekend and be sure to check in closer to game time of the WISC/MICH game for a line that can be bet on.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon my recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane