Jon Denton “Special” + Packers/Vikings betting preview
Dave Carney 12/30/2021
What’s on the table today?: Jon Denton “Special” + Packers/Vikings betting preview
The Jon Denton “Special” is clipping at an incredible rate of 32-15 over the last 6 weeks, and we look to continue those winning ways this weekend with a trio of College Football Bowl games and two plays in the NFL for Week 17.
Jon Denton “Special”
- North Carolina (-10) vs South Carolina
- Cincinnati/Alabama UNDER 57.5
- Utah/Ohio State UNDER 64.5
- Titans (-3.5) vs Dolphins
- Cardinals (+5.5) @ Cowboys
Vikings @ Packers(-6.5) / total 47 betting preview.
ATS for Packers and OVER are the HOT plays – BUT the weather could have a dramatic impact with temps expected to be 5 above zero.
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- Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC North.
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
- Over is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games overall
- Over is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in January.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall.
(from SI.com https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/its-going-to-be-really-cold-when-packers-host-vikings)
A kickoff temperature of 5 not only would be cold. It would be rare. According to Stathead.com, there have been only six games league-wide with a kickoff temperature of 5 or colder since Aaron Rodgers took over as Green Bay’s starting quarterback in 2008.
Three of those games involved the Packers and, oddly, the frigid weather meant nothing other than the bitterly cold feeling of disappointment. The Packers lost all three of those games: 24-21 to Houston with a kickoff temperature of 3 in 2008, 20-17 at Chicago two weeks later with a kickoff temperature of 2, and 23-20 to San Francisco in the 2013 playoffs with a kickoff temperature of 5.
Including the 2007 NFC Championship Game, a 23-20 loss to the Giants in which it was minus-1 at kickoff, the Packers haven’t won a 5-degrees-or-colder game since the 1996 NFC Championship Game. With a kickoff temperature of 3, Green Bay romped 30-13.
On the other hand, Rodgers is 26-4 at home in regular-season games played in December and January. Two of those losses came in 2018 – 20-17 vs. Arizona in what would be Mike McCarthy’s final game and 31-0 vs. Detroit in which he suffered a concussion on the first series.
His passer rating in those 30 games was a lofty 112.0 on the strength of 65 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions. He had a 100-plus rating in 17 starts.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
