Dave Carney 11/16/2021
What’s on the table today?: NFL Week 11 Betting Preview (system play 2.0)
Last Friday I detailed an NFL “system play” in 2021 that is really finding a groove in covering the spread (which is the name of the game in sports betting).
The “system play” I’m referring to is as follows: Betting in favor of teams who did not cover the previous week when facing teams who did cover the previous week has a record of 43-16-1 in 2021(through Week 10).
In Week 10 there were 6 games that fit the “system” outlined above with the “system” going 4-2 during the week. The games that fit our “system” were:
- Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs – LOSS – the Chiefs won 41-17
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos – WIN – the Eagles beat the Broncos straight up 30-13
- New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Tennessee Titans – WIN – the Saints lost, by TWO 23-21
- Carolina Panthers (+10) @ Arizona Cardinals – WIN – the Panthers beat the Cards straight up 34-10
- Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) v. Atlanta Falcons – WIN – the Cowboys rolled the Falcons 43-3
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Miami Dolphins – LOSS – The Ravens lost 22-10 on TNF.
Now taking a look at Week 11 and the following contests fit our “system” of teams that covered the previous week going against teams that DIDN’T cover the previous week.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) – Falcons didn’t cover the (+9.5) vs DAL, the Pats DID covers the (-1.5) vs CLE. The “system” says take the Falcons (+5.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3.5) – Dolphins DID cover in a straight up win over BAL while the Jets DIDN’T cover in a 45-17 loss to BUF. The “system” says take the Jets (+3.5)
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-10.5 – the Lions DID cover the (+5.5) in a 16-16 tie w/PIT while the Browns DIDN’T cover the (+1.5) vs the Pats. The “system” says take the Browns (-10.5)
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane