Dave Carney 11/12/2021
What’s on the table today?: A very specific betting trend in the NFL taking shape
This week I stumbled across an article from Deadspin that BLEW my mind! In the article, which centered on a TikTok video showing an oddly specific NFL betting trend, an incredible betting trend emerged that I’m so excited to share.
Below you’ll find an excerpt from the Deadspin article detailing the betting trend, and below that a list of SIX games in the NFL’s Week 10 that fit the mold of this betting trend.
Have a great weekend and good luck!!!
From Deadspin:
Betting in favor of teams who did not cover the previous week when facing teams who did cover the previous week has a record of 39-14-1 in 2021. I know the video says 38-14-1, but the Bears-Steelers game also fell into this category, and anyone that bet the Bears (+7) got the money. This trend went 7-0 in Week 2, 6-3 in Week 3, 7-3, 5-2-1, 3-3, 1-2, 3-0, and finally 7-0 this past week. If you were to put down $100 on each of these games throughout the season, you would be $2,500 richer minus the booking fees and any specific lines on each game. Basically, you’d be sitting pretty.
In Week 9, the seven games that would have fallen under this trend in question were Jacksonville (+14.5) against Buffalo, Atlanta (+5.5) against New Orleans, the Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) against Philadelphia, Kansas City (-1) against Green Bay, Arizona (+5.5) against San Francisco, Indianapolis (-10) against the New York Jets, and Chicago (+7) against Pittsburgh. Clearly, not every week is going to pan out this way. Weeks 6 and 7 saw the trend go a combined 4-5, but that appears to be just a small bump in the road since the trend has gone 10-0 since.
The biggest question everyone probably has now though is which games will fall under these circumstances this week? Here they are:
- Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs – Like it
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos – LOVE it
- New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Tennessee Titans – Like it
- Carolina Panthers (+10) @ Arizona Cardinals – Like it
- Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) v. Atlanta Falcons – **I don’t love this***
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Miami Dolphins – The Ravens lost 22-10 on TNF. This is the first miss of this system in just the 1st game of the Week….buyer beware!
For what it’s worth, I like/love four of five of these games being shown above. The one I don’t love, the Cowboys (-9.5) vs the Falcons. I don’t trust the Boys as much as the rest of the betting public does.
The Ravens really let themselves down last night on Thursday Night Football, but that said, I think this trend, considering the matchups listed above, is a solid one to make plays on this weekend.
**For more info on TOTAL plays, OVER/UNDER, and PLUS/MINUS plays, TEASER cards and more, check back through some previous columns for detailed information**
REMEMBER – don’t bet based upon our recommendations. Do your research. Stay in your lane
