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If not Green Bay, then where?

If not Green Bay, then where?


Dave Carney 5/3/2021      

What’s on the table today?: Betting Odds: What team will Aaron Rodgers play for next? 

Since I wrote on Friday in this space about Aaron Rodgers, and the odds he doesn’t play for the Green Bay Packers in 2021, quite a lot has happened.

Over the weekend Charles Davis (CBS Sports) reported that Aaron Rodgers’ “Camp” is saying that the future Hall of Famer will not come back to the Packers under any condition, if General Manager Brian Gutekunst is still at the helm of the club. Whether or not any of that is true remains elusive, but what is clear; the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are in serious trouble.

One of the analogies I’ve used recently in describing the horrific nature in which this relationship is devolving, is that of a scorned and jilted lover doing everything in his or her power to not only end the relationship, but make sure that the other party is as hurt as possible on the way out. The jilted lover telling the one they perceived to hurt them, “you’re going to regret this for the rest of your life, and I’ll do my best to make sure of it”… This is the worst imaginable place to be in. No more reasonable discussions, now it’s just about the HURT.

Peeling back the layers on why Aaron isn’t or hasn’t been happy with the Packers isn’t hard. Mike McCarthy stayed two years too long, the front office has done little to address what Rodgers sees as a big need in the wide receiver room, and Brian Gutekunst moved up in last year’s draft to take Aaron’s replacement. Not complicated stuff here no matter where you stand on players having involvement in personnel decisions. Aaron thinks, because of his status and value to the team, he should be consulted. When he wasn’t, he got mad. Really mad!

Even as of last Friday most odds makers didn’t make too much of the whole thing hedging the odds of Rodgers leaving Green Bay at (-700) saying he’ll STAY with the Packers. On Friday if you wanted to take a flyer on Aaron leaving the Cheese-heads behind, you would’ve gotten a juicy plus money bet at (+500). 

Today, I can’t even FIND odds that Aaron Rodgers stays with the Packers. I’ve looked, I’ve scoured, all I find are odds on the NEXT team that Rodgers plays for. That’s how fast this thing has deteriorated.

So, where DO the sharps in the business think that Aaron will land? That’s actually an interesting question that during the writing of this article I reached out to good friend, Chicago Sun Times writer, and a former contributor of ours on the WKTY Morning Show, Rob Miech who is writing a piece about this very topic this coming Saturday in the Chicago Sun Times. His piece will be a MUST-READ because the numbers I’m finding are varying so wildly it’s hard to know where to go with them.

Take for instance the Antigua based betting site BetOnline.ag has the following set of odds for Rodgers next destination (Packers excluded):

  • Broncos +500
  • Raiders +600
  • Dolphins/Chargers +1000
  • Browns/Saints +1200
  • Washington/Panthers +1400
  • Cardinals/Patriots/Eagles +2000
  • Vikings +2500
  • Bears +2800
  • Falcons/Cowboys/Lions/Steelers/Seahawks +3300

Odds from FoxBet (per NESN.com) show such drastic differences you can see where some confusion is coming in, and why we’ll need to read Rob’s column this Saturday in the Chicago Sun TImes:

  • Denver Broncos -150
  • Las Vegas Raiders +250
  • New Orleans Saints +500
  • Carolina Panthers +1000
  • Washington Football Team +1200
  • San Francisco 49ers +1600

It doesn’t take a “sharp” bettor, or even a smart person to see that if you’re getting PLUS money odds, in the Broncos case (+500) from BetOnline.ag and MINUS money odds, in the Broncos case (-150) from FoxBet, you’re taking the PLUS money from BetOnline. Something has to give here. These numbers CAN’T be that different and still be legit. Literally, something’s gotta give..

While I don’t enjoy ending this article without giving some sort of consensus on a play or at least an idea of how to make a play, this one is just too up-in-the-air at this point. My hope is that Rodgers, for the sake of Packers fans everywhere, decides to rescind his rather diva-esque demand, and just R-E-L-A-X-E-S, and comes back to his senses. The Packers are his best shot to win a Super Bowl, the Packers play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL giving him ample opportunity to pad his stats, and the Packers can give him the most love, and he knows that.

It’s really sad that for all these two (player and team) have been together, we’re here now. Maybe that’s why the odds are so murky? The Universe just doesn’t want to see Rodgers and the Packers break up?

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